Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
Can Africans Learn from History?
I believe Africa has suffered at least three tragic forces in its development history.
First, the 7th to 19th Century slave trade, the trans-Saharan, Indian & Atlantic Ocean slave trades, together robbed the continent close to 50million souls, depleting a pool of its economically active human resource consequently arresting African development possibilities.
Second, the 19th to 20th century colonization, the associated massive robbing & plundering of the continent’s resources, present value estimated at $ 50 trillion dollars during 1885 - 1980 by European powers, three times more of what they have been able to remit back as official development aid since independence.
Third, the 1945 to 1990 cold war geopolitics, Africa was a vital arena of geopolitical competition between United States, USSR & their allies, consequently plunging the continent into chronic despotic regimes, retarded institutions with profound negative development implications.
Once again Africa is facing significant challenges in the 21st century. Since 2007, it has witnessed a number of deep tectonic forces, especially the triple F crisis: fuel; food & financial crisis. Forces likely to have profound irreversible effects in reshaping the geopolitical & geostrategic map of the world post slavery, cold war, colonization era!
In this article, I describe 5 specific signposts directing where events may be headed, with global food security dilemma likely to revitalize the geostrategic importance of Africa, and also spell tragic consequences for its people as other world powers erect their strategic postures on the continent for its vast natural resource-land:
First, beginning late 2007, a quiet force of massive negotiation & acquisition of prime fertile land has rapidly spread across the continent. Close to 100 million hectares of agricultural land has been acquired by foreign governments, sovereign funds, foreign backed investment companies, & foreign rich individuals.
Foreign states on this acquisition spree include: Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, India, China, South Korea etc, all of which are currently potential or world major net food importers & Germany, U.K. Norway for bio-fuel farming. Overall motive is to secure stability of food, water, & energy supplies for their populations in the 21st century through 44, 99 and 999 year (i.e., 2 to 34 generations) land leases in Africa. Africa has the cheapest chunks of arable land, i.e., land prices per acre in Africa is $800-1000 cf Poland $6000, Argentina/Brazil-$6000, U.S. $7000, U.K $18000 & Germany,-$22000.
The problem is; African governments clandestinely leasing chunks of agricultural land to foreign states to grow food for their domestic markets have a section of their populations massively & chronically suffering food shortages i.e. Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Zambia, Tanzania, Congo, Mali, Sierra Leone, Ghana, Sudan, Mozambique, Swaziland etc. & occasionally extend begging bowls to the world for international food aid.
Second, climate change is producing far reaching effects across the continent i.e. droughts in Kenya, landslides in Uganda & rapid desertification across the continent. Effects that will continue to be exacerbated by increased quest for agricultural intensification, food & energy security & demographic changes. Increased urbanization, demand for water for: growing food& bio-fuel crops; and hydroelectric power will reach unprecedented proportions, putting pressure on the resource sector on the continent. Currently close to 300 million Africans do not have access to clean water and 600 million to clean sanitation; the numbers are projected to rise rapidly through 2025 and many African countries will be chronically short of fresh water by 2050.
Third, Thomas Malthus in 1798 put it“ that with food supplies increasing arithmetically while the number of people grew geometrically, the world population would eventually run out of food…” this is likely to happen first in Africa! Africa’s population is headed to add a staggering 350 million souls to its current 900 million by 2025 and will have a quarter of the global population by 2050, the highest rural-urban migration and home to world’s leading mega cities. Two in five Africans currently sleep on an empty stomach, or chronically malnourished, the numbers will rapidly rise as Africa competes with other parts of the world that have been food secure until recently, as the World Bank predicts a 50 percent rise in global food demand by 2030.
Fourth, global energy security has entered into direct competition with food security; crops for food and for bio-fuels are already in stiff competition for the available arable land and the resulting intensification further degrading the environment but also creating global food scarcity & hikes food prices. Land in major grain exporters like the U.S.is giving way to bio-fuel farming, projected to produce 60 billion gallons of ethanol by 2030. Combined effects could create an imbalance in global grain market, fuel food riots, civil strife & consequent state failures in Africa particularly.
Fifth, poor agricultural productivity in Africa coupled with diminishing public investments in agriculture research and development. Global official aid for agricultural research has fallen by more than 65 percent since 1980 profoundly so in Africa. The budget of the Consultative Group on International Agriculture Research (CGIAR) has fallen by 50 percent in the last 15 years, & Africa’s meager budgetary support for farming & structural adjustment programs have crippled agriculture research & development. For instance, the average African government spends only 4.5 percent of its budget on agriculture.
What can be done?
First, African governments should now see the global change & prospects of agriculture in the 21st century as a window of opportunity to transform their societies, firmly take advantage of its current comparative advantage in land resource to develop agriculture primarily for strategic food security, for its people, food & energy exports to its rich neighbors. They should see this as Africa’s turn to turn the levers, become the world’s food basket & global energy source & make poverty & misery history on the continent. Well handled the prospects of agriculture in the 21st century could lift millions out of poverty in Africa. This opportunity should not be squandered!
Second, foreign capital (FDI) is needed, but not in the current format of long term land leases negotiated so far that marginalizes the local people. African leaders must know when they are needed most and play to it not marginalize their own people. Contract farming and/or land hiring for a specific limited period (10 years) that leaves smallholder farmers in control of their land and contracts to investors, could still deliver the investment capital, technical know-how, jobs to local farmers and predictable food security for Africa and stable food supplies in form of African exports from African farmers to foreign partners as well with no threat of backlash in future.
Third, multilateral development institutions such as World Bank and African Development Bank should urgently direct their efforts on facilitating the above with development of the necessary physical infrastructure (roads, railways, ports, storage systems etc) to enable African states take this opportunity that is emerging for Africa in the 21st century.
Finally, I think they should be an immediate Pan African conference to bring together researchers, experts, policy makers and other practitioners from the continent and the world development agencies to discuss the 21st century strategic food security opportunities and threats on the continent.
First, the 7th to 19th Century slave trade, the trans-Saharan, Indian & Atlantic Ocean slave trades, together robbed the continent close to 50million souls, depleting a pool of its economically active human resource consequently arresting African development possibilities.
Second, the 19th to 20th century colonization, the associated massive robbing & plundering of the continent’s resources, present value estimated at $ 50 trillion dollars during 1885 - 1980 by European powers, three times more of what they have been able to remit back as official development aid since independence.
Third, the 1945 to 1990 cold war geopolitics, Africa was a vital arena of geopolitical competition between United States, USSR & their allies, consequently plunging the continent into chronic despotic regimes, retarded institutions with profound negative development implications.
Once again Africa is facing significant challenges in the 21st century. Since 2007, it has witnessed a number of deep tectonic forces, especially the triple F crisis: fuel; food & financial crisis. Forces likely to have profound irreversible effects in reshaping the geopolitical & geostrategic map of the world post slavery, cold war, colonization era!
In this article, I describe 5 specific signposts directing where events may be headed, with global food security dilemma likely to revitalize the geostrategic importance of Africa, and also spell tragic consequences for its people as other world powers erect their strategic postures on the continent for its vast natural resource-land:
First, beginning late 2007, a quiet force of massive negotiation & acquisition of prime fertile land has rapidly spread across the continent. Close to 100 million hectares of agricultural land has been acquired by foreign governments, sovereign funds, foreign backed investment companies, & foreign rich individuals.
Foreign states on this acquisition spree include: Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, India, China, South Korea etc, all of which are currently potential or world major net food importers & Germany, U.K. Norway for bio-fuel farming. Overall motive is to secure stability of food, water, & energy supplies for their populations in the 21st century through 44, 99 and 999 year (i.e., 2 to 34 generations) land leases in Africa. Africa has the cheapest chunks of arable land, i.e., land prices per acre in Africa is $800-1000 cf Poland $6000, Argentina/Brazil-$6000, U.S. $7000, U.K $18000 & Germany,-$22000.
The problem is; African governments clandestinely leasing chunks of agricultural land to foreign states to grow food for their domestic markets have a section of their populations massively & chronically suffering food shortages i.e. Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Zambia, Tanzania, Congo, Mali, Sierra Leone, Ghana, Sudan, Mozambique, Swaziland etc. & occasionally extend begging bowls to the world for international food aid.
Second, climate change is producing far reaching effects across the continent i.e. droughts in Kenya, landslides in Uganda & rapid desertification across the continent. Effects that will continue to be exacerbated by increased quest for agricultural intensification, food & energy security & demographic changes. Increased urbanization, demand for water for: growing food& bio-fuel crops; and hydroelectric power will reach unprecedented proportions, putting pressure on the resource sector on the continent. Currently close to 300 million Africans do not have access to clean water and 600 million to clean sanitation; the numbers are projected to rise rapidly through 2025 and many African countries will be chronically short of fresh water by 2050.
Third, Thomas Malthus in 1798 put it“ that with food supplies increasing arithmetically while the number of people grew geometrically, the world population would eventually run out of food…” this is likely to happen first in Africa! Africa’s population is headed to add a staggering 350 million souls to its current 900 million by 2025 and will have a quarter of the global population by 2050, the highest rural-urban migration and home to world’s leading mega cities. Two in five Africans currently sleep on an empty stomach, or chronically malnourished, the numbers will rapidly rise as Africa competes with other parts of the world that have been food secure until recently, as the World Bank predicts a 50 percent rise in global food demand by 2030.
Fourth, global energy security has entered into direct competition with food security; crops for food and for bio-fuels are already in stiff competition for the available arable land and the resulting intensification further degrading the environment but also creating global food scarcity & hikes food prices. Land in major grain exporters like the U.S.is giving way to bio-fuel farming, projected to produce 60 billion gallons of ethanol by 2030. Combined effects could create an imbalance in global grain market, fuel food riots, civil strife & consequent state failures in Africa particularly.
Fifth, poor agricultural productivity in Africa coupled with diminishing public investments in agriculture research and development. Global official aid for agricultural research has fallen by more than 65 percent since 1980 profoundly so in Africa. The budget of the Consultative Group on International Agriculture Research (CGIAR) has fallen by 50 percent in the last 15 years, & Africa’s meager budgetary support for farming & structural adjustment programs have crippled agriculture research & development. For instance, the average African government spends only 4.5 percent of its budget on agriculture.
What can be done?
First, African governments should now see the global change & prospects of agriculture in the 21st century as a window of opportunity to transform their societies, firmly take advantage of its current comparative advantage in land resource to develop agriculture primarily for strategic food security, for its people, food & energy exports to its rich neighbors. They should see this as Africa’s turn to turn the levers, become the world’s food basket & global energy source & make poverty & misery history on the continent. Well handled the prospects of agriculture in the 21st century could lift millions out of poverty in Africa. This opportunity should not be squandered!
Second, foreign capital (FDI) is needed, but not in the current format of long term land leases negotiated so far that marginalizes the local people. African leaders must know when they are needed most and play to it not marginalize their own people. Contract farming and/or land hiring for a specific limited period (10 years) that leaves smallholder farmers in control of their land and contracts to investors, could still deliver the investment capital, technical know-how, jobs to local farmers and predictable food security for Africa and stable food supplies in form of African exports from African farmers to foreign partners as well with no threat of backlash in future.
Third, multilateral development institutions such as World Bank and African Development Bank should urgently direct their efforts on facilitating the above with development of the necessary physical infrastructure (roads, railways, ports, storage systems etc) to enable African states take this opportunity that is emerging for Africa in the 21st century.
Finally, I think they should be an immediate Pan African conference to bring together researchers, experts, policy makers and other practitioners from the continent and the world development agencies to discuss the 21st century strategic food security opportunities and threats on the continent.
Thursday, March 11, 2010
Tuesday, February 9, 2010
Saturday, August 1, 2009
Why Interstate Disputes Should Not Delay the Modernisation of the Great Lakes Region.
The last two decades marked a significant number of interstate conflicts in the great lakes region including complex liberation wars of Rwanda, DRC, and crush of allied forces (Uganda & Rwandan troops) on a foreign territory in Eastern Congo in 1999 & the current stalemate over Migingo Island between Kenya-Uganda.
The Migingo Island dispute recently raised the prospects of war between Kenya & Uganda to significant levels. Apparently Uganda deployed military police, hoisted its flag on the island, prompting Kenyan Parliament to pass a bill authorizing President Kibaki to use every resource at his disposal to defend its territorial integrity & ethnically charged rhetoric capable of triggering a wave of ethnic & tribal violence ensued disturbingly at high political levels.
Migingo dispute like all conflicts that have plagued Africa is characteristically centered on resource control & exploitation, precisely, the fishing industry on Lake Victoria (Apparently, Uganda indicated that it will not permit Luo Kenyans to fish in Ugandan waters surrounding Migingo after the joint survey results establishing the boundaries are published).
My opinion is, there shouldn’t be any form of dispute in the EAC to fundamentally undermine the strategic vision of the common people & modernization of the region.
First, because we are entering a new era of world history, where interdependence & interconnectedness defines the modern world therefore tensions, conflict & war between neighboring states should be deligitimized.
Rapidly modernizing regions of East Asia have learned the ills of interstate war & conflict on their quest for modernization & the region has the fastest rates of interconnectedness, via free trade & economic integration. EAC with its unique regional integration model is at an opportune moment for leading the rest of Africa & cannot once again afford to squander this opportunity to lead Africa into new era of increasing importance of regional economic blocks as centers of modernization & power.
In his book “The New Asian Hemisphere, Irresistible Shift of Global Power to the East” a leading Asian thinker Kishore Mahbubani has asserted that the East Asian powers are on the match to modernity because they have learned the pillars of modernization from the West.
Key of these pillars is the culture of peace in which East Asia’s new world is a world close to zero prospects of interstate war. Guns are silent & its factory engines that are buzzing & movement of goods & services, investments and labor are making inroads in the region with China, Japan, India, and Korea leading the rest in extending the frontiers of economic integration.
Largely Africa has been independent for more than half a century now, why do other states & regions modernize faster than itself? Why does Africa future remain the past of other regions characterized by shallow in-depth of trade & economic integration, regional & interstate tensions, and civil conflicts that no longer existed in modern Europe, North America & recently East Asia? Can African leaders learn from the rest?
Second, any form of conflict or interstate tensions suffocates the emergence of the middle class, the society’s agents of modernization. Africa remains the region with the lowest numbers of the middle class in the world explaining its limited pace of modernization (the higher the numbers of the middle class the faster the pace of modernization in any country or region).
The mammoth of middle class in China & India (close to 650 million people) are behind the rapid rise of these powers and the region as a centre of gravity of the global economy & future political power. The region provides great lessons for EAC people & their leaders that size matters along with numbers of middle class created & neighboring state tensions only serve to delay the matching forward of close to 130 million in the region to modernity
Third, middle class numbers, size of market, & absence of regional tensions (business environment ratings) determine the quality of region’s foreign investment. Even in absence of actual war, tensions, uprooting of regional infrastructure (railway lines in Kenya) over Migingo Island are bad for the region’s reputation in attracting sustainable large scale market seeking foreign industrial investments & bad for native investments too. Africa’s reputation as high risk for business is often cited as the reason why it receives only a portion of Global FDI flows ($ 61 billion (4.2%) of $ 1.5 trillion of FDI flows in 2008)
Fourth, the recent boom in trade between Uganda & Southern Sudan demonstrates how intra-regional disputes can limit a trade potential of the region. After stabilization of Southern Sudan, trade between the two neighbors grew by 80 percent in favor of Uganda suddenly Sudan is one of the important trading partners of Uganda in COMESA region. Intra-regional wars, conflicts & tensions do hurt intra-regional trade volume.
President Museveni, in his timely speech recently in Lusaka Zambia laid down his African single market vision & infrastructure that connects it, a noble vision but only if not overshadowed by short term national pride at the expense of regional, political and economic competitiveness.
Fifth, because the region has the highest propensity for destructive ethnic group competition in the world, the vision of EAC federation provides a farsighted platform through taking advantage to create regional robust institutions that could mitigate the adverse effects of destructive ethnic group competition & lock in ethnic fractionalization that has deterred the region from extending it frontiers of modernization.
Sixth, EAC is at vantage point in a strategic security sphere of influence for the next 21st century world. The balance of power is shifting in the world, the West is no longer capable of protecting its allies, visa vie the emerging new centers of power & patterns of international security. The increasing penetration of the Arab World in Sub Saharan Africa (through state enterprises massively acquiring land resources), the Darfur Crisis, possible conflicts over water, River Nile, Arms Race in the Middle East (a possible Nuclear Armed Iran), a strategic joint regional security agenda will guarantee EAC`s influence on the continent & must be of interest to its leaders to pursue jointly & strategically.
Mahmood Mamdani, in his book “Good Muslim Bad Muslim-An African Perspective” has asserted that “civilization & therefore modernization is a constant creation whereby we gradually expand the boundaries of community, the boundaries of those with whom we share the world” hence the charges over Migingo is not helpful for the process of integrating & modernizing the EAC, no matter the reasons the people of two countries have in mind.
The Migingo Island dispute recently raised the prospects of war between Kenya & Uganda to significant levels. Apparently Uganda deployed military police, hoisted its flag on the island, prompting Kenyan Parliament to pass a bill authorizing President Kibaki to use every resource at his disposal to defend its territorial integrity & ethnically charged rhetoric capable of triggering a wave of ethnic & tribal violence ensued disturbingly at high political levels.
Migingo dispute like all conflicts that have plagued Africa is characteristically centered on resource control & exploitation, precisely, the fishing industry on Lake Victoria (Apparently, Uganda indicated that it will not permit Luo Kenyans to fish in Ugandan waters surrounding Migingo after the joint survey results establishing the boundaries are published).
My opinion is, there shouldn’t be any form of dispute in the EAC to fundamentally undermine the strategic vision of the common people & modernization of the region.
First, because we are entering a new era of world history, where interdependence & interconnectedness defines the modern world therefore tensions, conflict & war between neighboring states should be deligitimized.
Rapidly modernizing regions of East Asia have learned the ills of interstate war & conflict on their quest for modernization & the region has the fastest rates of interconnectedness, via free trade & economic integration. EAC with its unique regional integration model is at an opportune moment for leading the rest of Africa & cannot once again afford to squander this opportunity to lead Africa into new era of increasing importance of regional economic blocks as centers of modernization & power.
In his book “The New Asian Hemisphere, Irresistible Shift of Global Power to the East” a leading Asian thinker Kishore Mahbubani has asserted that the East Asian powers are on the match to modernity because they have learned the pillars of modernization from the West.
Key of these pillars is the culture of peace in which East Asia’s new world is a world close to zero prospects of interstate war. Guns are silent & its factory engines that are buzzing & movement of goods & services, investments and labor are making inroads in the region with China, Japan, India, and Korea leading the rest in extending the frontiers of economic integration.
Largely Africa has been independent for more than half a century now, why do other states & regions modernize faster than itself? Why does Africa future remain the past of other regions characterized by shallow in-depth of trade & economic integration, regional & interstate tensions, and civil conflicts that no longer existed in modern Europe, North America & recently East Asia? Can African leaders learn from the rest?
Second, any form of conflict or interstate tensions suffocates the emergence of the middle class, the society’s agents of modernization. Africa remains the region with the lowest numbers of the middle class in the world explaining its limited pace of modernization (the higher the numbers of the middle class the faster the pace of modernization in any country or region).
The mammoth of middle class in China & India (close to 650 million people) are behind the rapid rise of these powers and the region as a centre of gravity of the global economy & future political power. The region provides great lessons for EAC people & their leaders that size matters along with numbers of middle class created & neighboring state tensions only serve to delay the matching forward of close to 130 million in the region to modernity
Third, middle class numbers, size of market, & absence of regional tensions (business environment ratings) determine the quality of region’s foreign investment. Even in absence of actual war, tensions, uprooting of regional infrastructure (railway lines in Kenya) over Migingo Island are bad for the region’s reputation in attracting sustainable large scale market seeking foreign industrial investments & bad for native investments too. Africa’s reputation as high risk for business is often cited as the reason why it receives only a portion of Global FDI flows ($ 61 billion (4.2%) of $ 1.5 trillion of FDI flows in 2008)
Fourth, the recent boom in trade between Uganda & Southern Sudan demonstrates how intra-regional disputes can limit a trade potential of the region. After stabilization of Southern Sudan, trade between the two neighbors grew by 80 percent in favor of Uganda suddenly Sudan is one of the important trading partners of Uganda in COMESA region. Intra-regional wars, conflicts & tensions do hurt intra-regional trade volume.
President Museveni, in his timely speech recently in Lusaka Zambia laid down his African single market vision & infrastructure that connects it, a noble vision but only if not overshadowed by short term national pride at the expense of regional, political and economic competitiveness.
Fifth, because the region has the highest propensity for destructive ethnic group competition in the world, the vision of EAC federation provides a farsighted platform through taking advantage to create regional robust institutions that could mitigate the adverse effects of destructive ethnic group competition & lock in ethnic fractionalization that has deterred the region from extending it frontiers of modernization.
Sixth, EAC is at vantage point in a strategic security sphere of influence for the next 21st century world. The balance of power is shifting in the world, the West is no longer capable of protecting its allies, visa vie the emerging new centers of power & patterns of international security. The increasing penetration of the Arab World in Sub Saharan Africa (through state enterprises massively acquiring land resources), the Darfur Crisis, possible conflicts over water, River Nile, Arms Race in the Middle East (a possible Nuclear Armed Iran), a strategic joint regional security agenda will guarantee EAC`s influence on the continent & must be of interest to its leaders to pursue jointly & strategically.
Mahmood Mamdani, in his book “Good Muslim Bad Muslim-An African Perspective” has asserted that “civilization & therefore modernization is a constant creation whereby we gradually expand the boundaries of community, the boundaries of those with whom we share the world” hence the charges over Migingo is not helpful for the process of integrating & modernizing the EAC, no matter the reasons the people of two countries have in mind.
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
Can Africa Unite under Col. Gaddafi?
One of the greatest optimists of all times JFK, 46 years ago speaking on World Peace at American University, said “….let us examine our attitude toward peace itself. Too many of us think it is impossible. Too many of us think it is unreal. But that is dangerous, defeatist belief. It leads to the conclusion that war is inevitable--- that mankind is doomed--- that we are gripped by forces we cannot control".
He went on to say that “.......... Our problems are manmade - - therefore, they can be solved by man. And man can be as big as he wants. No problem of human destiny is beyond human beings. Man's reason and spirit have often solved the seemingly unsolvable - - and we believe they can do it again".
With the same optimism I wish to give Col. Gaddafi`s grand dream of a United States of Africa the merit it deserves but also spell out the real challenges such a grand vision is bound to encounter both within and beyond Africa.
First, fear a continental monarch, his recent posture, utterances, have fuelled this fear. He is reported to have assembled traditional leaders from the continent, & declared himself their “king”, save to the other fellow, elected leaders on the continent.
He is also reported to have said that revolutionaries do not retire from power and possibly they handover power to their next of kin, leading into a ruling family dynasty. And there is reason to believe he means business.
He has stayed on power (he seized by force from King Idris,) for 4 decades now and never been elected! (Many analysts have posed a similar question) what if he refuses to relinquish power as the president of US of Africa? I bet this fear among leaders and ordinary people of a continental monarch will determine meaningful progress toward a sensible United States of Africa.
Second, within and outside Africa, suspicion roams that Gaddafi at the helm would push to spread of Islam on the continent. Any signs for this speculation?, he is reported to have said the bible is a forgery, outraging hundreds of millions of the Christian folk.,He is renowned for using his financial chest to support and erect mosques across the continent and his posture on a typical religious conflict between Arabs and black Africans in Darfur has not been encouraging.
This could potentially turn the continent into a battle ground for religious conflicts from within and outside (western powers) the continent further alienating Africans amongst themselves and defer their integration with the rest of the world for another generation.
Third, proponents of step by step approach (gradualists) toward continent unity perceive and rightly so, that focus should be on building new institutions, strengthening the existing ones to be effective and wining the confidence of the African people (the masses) as the key "building blocks of a gradual economic and consequent political union.
This holds more promise than a summit communiqué of an instantaneous supranational government in Addis Ababa or Tripoli. Additionally, his words may come back to haunt his on this project. How many revolutionaries on the continent are willing to cede power & sovereignty of their states to him?
Fourth, political, economic and cultural realities on the continent, Africa is the most diverse region in the world, via culture, region, ethnicity, language, political systems and wide gaps within levels of economic development and vast oddities of life still exist. It trades less with itself compared to the rest of the world. Its regional integration efforts are sporadic and in tatters etc.
As matter of priority Gaddafi should instead use his financial chest focus on more practical, more attainable goals like strengthening the AU and its organs, help it resolve its financial problems, make it an effective instrument of peace and development on the continent through building new institutions and organs, generate new ideas, that will guarantee a smooth, coherent and viable integration of the continent through all the perquisite stages i.e. establishing the sustainable building blocks for African Unity. This is more practical and would guarantee him a historical place and lasting legacy on the continental than theatrics he has come to be known of.
Fifth, his scheme, his reputation and track record are likely to be seen as several steps backwards on progress of a democratisation process on the continent and nations that consider themselves to have made considerable gains on this front and their people exercise their rights to choose their leaders in regular free and fair elections are likely to disdain his scheme with contempt.
Such states like Botswana, Cape Verde, Ghana, Nigeria, Tanzania, South Africa etc could find it difficult to join his bandwagon of despotism at continental level.
Sixth, where are the voices of ordinary Africans? many African people possibly share with Gaddafi the impatience of lack of economic and political integration of African, but his instantaneous enthronement will deny them the right to participate and shape the future unity of the continent and more importantly its sustainability, because it deprives them of collective choice and responsibility , the key ingredients of any sustainable political effort if it has to outlast itself and post Gaddafi era and ambition.
Seventh, Gaddafi and Africa have had bad publicity from the western media, his reputation and track record generates mistrust from western powers: One would ask, how important is the trust of the west in this project?
It does not help but hurts the project because almost all the 53 continents countries have 50 percent of their budgets externally supported and it will continue to be so even if a United States of Africa is formed under Col. Gaddafi.
Finally, marginalisation of the African continent in the 21st century at an international stage is a real challenge for every African leader. But its not a single government in Addis Ababa or Tripoli, with a single command post and a bunch of bureaucrats at a supranational structure that will lessen it.
The challenge is not a political one but largely an economic one coupled with the effective market size of the continent. It’s a challenge that transcends every ego and every personal ambition. It’s a challenge that will need new and good ideas, commitment for every man and woman on the continent, if the slip of the continent behind the rest of the regions is to be halted in the near future. And there is no single formula to overcome this challenge. It has to be viewed as a dynamic but not a static process that cannot happen instantaneously as the good old revolutionary colonel suggests.
Once again as JFK said "....our hopes must be tempered with the caution of history—but our hopes go the hopes of all mankind" lets hope Africa will unite soon whether with Gaddafi or someone else.
He went on to say that “.......... Our problems are manmade - - therefore, they can be solved by man. And man can be as big as he wants. No problem of human destiny is beyond human beings. Man's reason and spirit have often solved the seemingly unsolvable - - and we believe they can do it again".
With the same optimism I wish to give Col. Gaddafi`s grand dream of a United States of Africa the merit it deserves but also spell out the real challenges such a grand vision is bound to encounter both within and beyond Africa.
First, fear a continental monarch, his recent posture, utterances, have fuelled this fear. He is reported to have assembled traditional leaders from the continent, & declared himself their “king”, save to the other fellow, elected leaders on the continent.
He is also reported to have said that revolutionaries do not retire from power and possibly they handover power to their next of kin, leading into a ruling family dynasty. And there is reason to believe he means business.
He has stayed on power (he seized by force from King Idris,) for 4 decades now and never been elected! (Many analysts have posed a similar question) what if he refuses to relinquish power as the president of US of Africa? I bet this fear among leaders and ordinary people of a continental monarch will determine meaningful progress toward a sensible United States of Africa.
Second, within and outside Africa, suspicion roams that Gaddafi at the helm would push to spread of Islam on the continent. Any signs for this speculation?, he is reported to have said the bible is a forgery, outraging hundreds of millions of the Christian folk.,He is renowned for using his financial chest to support and erect mosques across the continent and his posture on a typical religious conflict between Arabs and black Africans in Darfur has not been encouraging.
This could potentially turn the continent into a battle ground for religious conflicts from within and outside (western powers) the continent further alienating Africans amongst themselves and defer their integration with the rest of the world for another generation.
Third, proponents of step by step approach (gradualists) toward continent unity perceive and rightly so, that focus should be on building new institutions, strengthening the existing ones to be effective and wining the confidence of the African people (the masses) as the key "building blocks of a gradual economic and consequent political union.
This holds more promise than a summit communiqué of an instantaneous supranational government in Addis Ababa or Tripoli. Additionally, his words may come back to haunt his on this project. How many revolutionaries on the continent are willing to cede power & sovereignty of their states to him?
Fourth, political, economic and cultural realities on the continent, Africa is the most diverse region in the world, via culture, region, ethnicity, language, political systems and wide gaps within levels of economic development and vast oddities of life still exist. It trades less with itself compared to the rest of the world. Its regional integration efforts are sporadic and in tatters etc.
As matter of priority Gaddafi should instead use his financial chest focus on more practical, more attainable goals like strengthening the AU and its organs, help it resolve its financial problems, make it an effective instrument of peace and development on the continent through building new institutions and organs, generate new ideas, that will guarantee a smooth, coherent and viable integration of the continent through all the perquisite stages i.e. establishing the sustainable building blocks for African Unity. This is more practical and would guarantee him a historical place and lasting legacy on the continental than theatrics he has come to be known of.
Fifth, his scheme, his reputation and track record are likely to be seen as several steps backwards on progress of a democratisation process on the continent and nations that consider themselves to have made considerable gains on this front and their people exercise their rights to choose their leaders in regular free and fair elections are likely to disdain his scheme with contempt.
Such states like Botswana, Cape Verde, Ghana, Nigeria, Tanzania, South Africa etc could find it difficult to join his bandwagon of despotism at continental level.
Sixth, where are the voices of ordinary Africans? many African people possibly share with Gaddafi the impatience of lack of economic and political integration of African, but his instantaneous enthronement will deny them the right to participate and shape the future unity of the continent and more importantly its sustainability, because it deprives them of collective choice and responsibility , the key ingredients of any sustainable political effort if it has to outlast itself and post Gaddafi era and ambition.
Seventh, Gaddafi and Africa have had bad publicity from the western media, his reputation and track record generates mistrust from western powers: One would ask, how important is the trust of the west in this project?
It does not help but hurts the project because almost all the 53 continents countries have 50 percent of their budgets externally supported and it will continue to be so even if a United States of Africa is formed under Col. Gaddafi.
Finally, marginalisation of the African continent in the 21st century at an international stage is a real challenge for every African leader. But its not a single government in Addis Ababa or Tripoli, with a single command post and a bunch of bureaucrats at a supranational structure that will lessen it.
The challenge is not a political one but largely an economic one coupled with the effective market size of the continent. It’s a challenge that transcends every ego and every personal ambition. It’s a challenge that will need new and good ideas, commitment for every man and woman on the continent, if the slip of the continent behind the rest of the regions is to be halted in the near future. And there is no single formula to overcome this challenge. It has to be viewed as a dynamic but not a static process that cannot happen instantaneously as the good old revolutionary colonel suggests.
Once again as JFK said "....our hopes must be tempered with the caution of history—but our hopes go the hopes of all mankind" lets hope Africa will unite soon whether with Gaddafi or someone else.
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