Not much in his first term at least! The last 26 days can give a clue on what he is likely to focus on as his priorities.
Jumpstarting the American economy, restoring its dynamism as the most competitive economy in the world and central to this will be averting the shrinking industrial jobs and creating new ones, funding for innovative technologies, managing the federal budget deficit, tax cuts for middle class families, reducing foreign energy dependency, re-innovating the education system.
On foreign policy front as a priority, he will be charged with rebalancing the war act in Iraq, Afghanistan and containing Iranian nuclear ambitions, save the long standing US-Middle East overall foreign policy agenda.
He will also be charged with offering leadership to the rest of the world from the global economic crisis that was caused by recent failure of international financial system.
Like he is a historical president, he is possibly at the end of a historical era, the likely end of “free-market absolutism” on to the “post-free market era” that has picked up momentum since the financial crisis struck recently.
It’s now wide spread and accepted that markets especially financial markets should be regulated.
This is a full plate agenda for president Obama and it needs pragmatic and non-idealistic and well thought out solutions.
Is it all bleak for the African continent in the first term?
No. Not at all, the first generation African-American, first American black president, Obama has already delivered a “down payment” to the ordinary folks on the African continent’s expectation.
On 4th November 2008 he delivered- that with hope, discipline and persistent hard work, against any extraordinary oddity, we can change our world. We can overcome any challenge and prejudice.
He delivered a psychological boost for all downtrodden people and those perceived or truly oppressed around the world, that they can stop being hostages of their fears, stereotypes and oppressors and marginalizers. That- yes they can!
African leaders and African people, have no further excuses of continuing to blame their lack of progress on colonialism and slavery and external forces, Obama has demonstrated that it’s possible to break these chains of the past and stop being hostages to them.
In this piece, I argue and propose a 6 point programme for President Obama come 20th January 2009 as his opportunities but also challenges to bring change to what Leonard De Caprio calls the “God forsaken Continent”-Africa.
His first African foreign policy priority should be using American diplomatic machinery and might to reverse the trend of conflict on the continent. From Congo, Zimbabwe, Somalia, Ethiopia-Eritrea etc, coupled with nurturing and enhancing African own diplomatic power, he will have to use his “fierce urgency of now”.
First he should abandon the old fashioned “carrot and stick” foreign policy approach by lifting the ineffective economic sanctions that only hurt ordinary people and leave the oppressive regimes thriving and oppressing their own people further.
Second, he should bring the protagonist including other global powers with interest in these regional conflicts (for example China in case of Darfur) to the talking table using his and American moral authority, failure of protagonists to agree should be followed with what America did in Kosovo, stop the suffering of ordinary people by intervening militarily with American and allied forces but keen to avoid the Iraq style mess i.e. he has to engineer carefull interventions strategies.
Third, the HIV/AIDS, TB and Malaria crisis on the continent- he will urgently have to reverse Bush’s aid conditionality regarding HIV/AIDs which has previously focussed on ABC (Abstinence, Be faithful and Use Condoms).
Largely driven by socially conservative republicans this aid conditionality approach on human lives has proved ineffective especially in Uganda where the prevalence rate of HIV/AIDs has been reversed in recent years from declining to increasing.
The approach of ABC is out of touch with 21 century reality and should be abandoned by Obama presidency as a conditionality for funding HIV/AIDS programmes in Africa. He should further boost up the PAPFER and TB and Malaria support beyond Bush’s accomplishments if he is to make a difference.
Fourth, fighting poverty on the continent, President Obama intends to double foreign assistance to Africa from $25 billion to $50 billion, cancel debts of heavily indebted African countries etc.
This is will not change things at all. Foreign assistance with American interests at the heart as U.S. congress determines or its competitors like China shape aid priorities and programmes or for that case from any other country has proved ineffective than trade.
Africa now after sixty years of foreign aid and debt cancellation needs something else. It needs to trade and capacity to trade with the rest of the world. Take for instance, today American farm subsidies are in the range of $ 25 billion per year.
Sadly these huge subsidies go to huge commercial farmers and agribusiness companies with annual incomes above $ 200,000! Coupled with export subsidies these have kept small holders producers in Africa outside the world markets and their own home markets.
This is an acceptable for a man who came in the presidency with credentials of change, especially in this case in the eyes of poor and struggling African farmers trying to make ends meet.
This is his opportunity to change this global trade injustice perpetuated by big agro industrial interest groups in the OECD countries especially against poor farmers in the developing world and Africa in particular.
Take for instance the huge subsidies that go to the U.S. cotton industry to produce inefficiently hurts thousands and thousands of poor small cotton farmers in Benin, Burkina Faso, and Chad, Mali and Uganda and other African countries.
He has also to change American policy of providing food aid in kind if his agenda is to reduce poverty on the continent. Shipping corn, or other grain, cooking oil etc across the Atlantic Ocean to feed Africans in displaced camps when in the neighbouring villages, small holder producers are having grain rotting in their granaries because of lack of remunerating market prices as a result of these cheap shipments should not make economic sense to a man on a mission to eradicate poverty on this continent .
Obama presidency should change this to monetizing food aid so as to encourage local purchases of food aid which would change the economic plight of many African small holder producers as sources of income. America is the largest food aid provider in the world but sadly in kind. This should stop on African continent with Obama presidency.
He will need to continue and strengthen African Growth and Opportunities Act (AGOA), extend it beyond the current deadline of 2015, make it more predictable and permanent to be able to attract meaningful and lasting investment on the continent.
Firth, I strongly believe President Obama should strengthen AFRICOM the new pentagon African Command despite the hullabaloo it generated on the continent.
Its mandate can be restricted to the pentagon providing technical assistance to African forces for humanitarian aid, disaster and counter terrorism strategy including drug trafficking control.
Africa is still vulnerable to these vices and its forces need the pentagon’s technology and capacity to contain them as well as enhancing their peace keeping mission’s capabilities. AFRICOM should not be viewed as militarization of Africa-America relationship but an essential strategic partnership for peace and development on the continent.
Sixth, president Obama proposes a global fund for education, together with his Add Value to Agriculture Initiative and Global Energy and Environment Initiative (GEE) in Africa, this should primarily focus on overhauling the higher education system on the continent, emphasise strengthening research and development, delivering 21st technology and innovation at higher institutions of learning on the continent with intent to generate tailor made continent solutions rather that utilising foreign expertise.
There is no doubt; President Obama will be constrained on delivery of this change to the continent. The ongoing financial crisis, the enormous pressure to focus on domestic problems all will have a possible impact on aspects of his foreign policy agenda and foreign assistance in Africa.
Consequently his African cousins should be ready for disappointments and mistakes from President Obama, but his presidency is a remarkable historical moment for the continent.
